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Miller’s Week 7 NFL, Fins & Fantasy

October 20th, 2013 · No Comments

Miami Dolphins (-8.5) vs Buffalo Bills (O/U 42.5)
Sunday, October 20, 2013 @ 1:00 PM, Sun Life Stadium

Miami (3-2) coming off a 2-game losing streak and following its bye, plays its first divisional game against Buffalo (2-4), who has also lost its last 2 games. If the Dolphins are the team “we” think they are, they should win this game, regardless of the uncertain status of certain injured players who may be game-time decisions.

The Fins should be able to run on the Bills, who are giving up an average of 124 yards-per-game (28th) against opposing rushers. This means a steady dose of carries for Lamar Miller (25 total touches), which will eventually bring in a Bills’ Safety into the proverbial “Box”. QB Tanny will then use play-action fakes to strike deep downfield for WR’s Wallace and Hartline. If slot receiver B.Gibson does not play (Questionable at press time), then look for TE Clay to play a larger role in short passing game. Either way, I expect Miller to be active as a receiver as well and make a big play or 2 in open space. The much-maligned Fins’ O-Line will come in refreshed from its week off and will play with a renewed sense of purpose (at least that’s the hope). They better watch out for DE Mario Williams (8 sacks) who along with his D-Line cohorts; i.e., M.Dareus (4 sacks) have a knack for placing undue pressure on opposing QB’s and must be licking their chops if Fins get into predictable pass situations. Still, I see Miller running for 100+ and TD, getting “in space” on designed screens and wheel routes, and Wallace making some big plays including score. KI Sturgis should have at least 2 made FGs as well.

The Bills shall be sans their No. 1 draft choice and starting QB EJ Manuel from FSU. So, Thad Lewis makes his second consecutive start. Lewis is a former Dukie and while he had a nice game last week against the Bengals that fell short of a win in OT, the league now has game tape on his tendencies, albeit just 4 quarters worth. He likes to roll out, throws well on the run, and loves to stare down his receivers. He does have a decent arm, and throws a pretty fair deep ball (at least vs no deep Safety). Expect Fins DC Coyle to have some exotic and confusing blitz packages to force at least one turnover in pass game, and further expect a seemingly healthy Cam Wake to have a bounce-back breakout game. The real key will be stopping the dual-threat rush game of CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson, who together are averaging nearly 150 ypg (3rd in league). Watch for Safeties to cheat up and prevent big runs. They will have to cheat as it appears “doubtful” that Middle Linebacker D.Ellerbe will play. That is indeed bad news. To compound matters, CB D.Patterson is a game-time decision, while BUF starting WR Stevie Johnson will play. Expect CB Grimes to shadow SJ. But who will cover TE Chandler (Fins worst in league vs opposing TE’s yardage-wise)? The Bills will move the ball on Miami, the question is will MIA hold them to FGs or give up the big play?

I expect Fins to control line of scrimmage on offense and NT Soliai to plug up middle on Bills’ rush attempts – most of day, and just enough for home team Aqua, Orange and Pink (for Breast Cancer Awareness) to pull out a much needed home win. Prediction: Dolphins 27 Bills 20.

NFL Week 7 Win Picks (mainly for Survivor / Suicide Pool purposes):
DEN, SD, KC, GB, SF, BAL, NYG, ATL, DET, NE, CHI, CAR, DAL

Week 7 Fantasy Sleepers:
QB: Luck, Eli, J.Freeman (MIN), Dalton, Foles, Cutler, Rivers, Flacco
RB: L.Miller, Moreno (not sleeping?), Jacobs, Quiz, GIO, Ridley, Randle (DAL), Deangelo; Mathews, L.Bell
WR: R.Woods (if Patterson out), Bowe, Hopkins, R.Randle, Jennings, M.Williams (TB), R.Cooper, T.Williams (DAL), A.Jeffrey, Hankerson, A.Pettis, Lafell, K.Allen, Blackmon, E.Sanders.
TE: Gronk (sleeps until plays), Clay, S.Chandler (BUF), Fleener, Rudolph, B.Meyer, Gresham, M.Bennett, H.Miller, Cumberland
DF: Fins, Chiefs, Pats, Bears, Chargers, Pack, Ravens (includes non-sleepers).

That’s all for now.

Remember to Follow me on Twitter @Footballnutsy

Related posts:

  1. Miller’s Week 9 Fins & Fantasy
  2. Miller’s Week 10 Fins & Fantasy
  3. Miller’s Week 6 NFL, Fins & Fantasy
  4. Miller’s Week 2 NFL Fins & Fantasy Pick
  5. Miller’s Week 5 NFL, Fins & Fantasy

Tags: Cool Topics · Eric Miller · Sports

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