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Miller’s Week 12 NFL/Fantasy Picks with Dolphins Commentary

November 27th, 2011 · 4 Comments

So far this week I am 2-1 ATS on Turkey Day Facebook postings. Below are this week’s Top 5 high-to-medium confidence picks. Star-Ratings for Fantasy Players follow. But first, a brief editorial on the Dolphins’ well-played (for the most part) TG day loss to Dallas:

The Fins played well enough to win against the Dallas Cowboys on Thanksgiving Day, but didn’t. They played well partially because QB Matt Moore has developed into a solid, middle-of-the-pack starting passer in the league. He’s mostly accurate under pressure, and doesn’t make mistakes with frequency. His one mistake on the day, a flubbed shotgun snap, which resulted in a turnover and quick Romo-to-LoRo TD pass, was his only real costly error. His TD bomb to WR Marshall with pass interference and all, was a thing of beauty. He can do more of that. But the coaching staff apparently doesn’t trust him when it counts most. With under 5 minutes remaining and Miami up by 2, the Fins “O” was positioned to run valuable time off the clock and perhaps even close it out en route to victory. The Fins then ran on 2 of 3 plays (one up the middle and the other on a designed rollout slide). Only 1:32 elapsed and Dallas got the ball back, with the defense succumbing to yet another closing-minute losing drive. It is this writer’s opinion that Matt Moore had earned the opportunity to be the winning QB by aggressively attacking a desperate defense. Achieving first downs were critical; instead the coaches called for predictable, whimpish football down the stretch. Winning games in crunch time is largely the result of coaching decisions and player execution. On this national stage, the coaches let the team down.

This Week’s NFL Picks (spreads are as of Saturday’s Herald)

1. CIN (-7) vs CLE (Dalton and CedBen too much, and Gals’ DF will trample listless Brownies)
2. SD (-6) vs DEN (Bolts’ backs up against it; don’t see more Tebow magic making difference)
3. PIT (-10.5) @ KC (Ben seems healthy, and while line is big, Steeler D off bye facing Palko is bigger)
4. ATL (-9.5) vs SD (No AP for Vikes and Julio back for Dirty Birds means easy walk down “schoolyard”)
5. SEA (-3.5) vs WAS (Long West Coast trip for under-manned Skins; 12th-Man Stadium too much)

Below are my Star* ratings of Fantasy starters for this week’s games (and in order within the star list).
[5*: Absolute starter; 4*: Excellent play; 3*: Good choice; 2*: Decent but iffy; 1*: Low-level starter]:

QB:
5* – Brady, Brees
4* – Rivers, Eli
3* – Ryan, Big Ben, Cam, Dalton, Bradford
2* – Palmer, Leinert, V.Young, Tebow, Sanchez
1* – Skelton, T.Jackson, Fitzpatrick, Hanie, Ponder

RB:
5* – McCoy, Forte, Turner
4* – S.Jax, Foster, Mendy, Lynch
3* – M.Bush, CedBen, S.Green (inj) / McKnight, Mathews (inj) / Tolbert, Wells, Sproles
2* – MJD, CJ2K, McGahee, BGE, Blount, Stewart, DeAngelo, Addai (inj) / D.Brown, Jacobs
1* – Spiller, Hillis (inj)

WR:
5* – S.Smith, Welker, A.Johnson
4* – Wallace, Roddy, Nicks, Desean
3* – Fitzgerald, Cruz, Lloyd
2* – Manningham, VJax, Julio (inj), Holmes, N.Washington, M.Williams, Plaxico, AJ Green, Bowe, Harvin
1* – Bennett, Garcon, D.Moore, L.Moore, Simpson, Decker, V.Brown

TE:
5* Gronkowski, Graham, Gates
4* Tony G, Hernandez
3* Ballard, Daniels, F.Davis
2* Tammy, Celek, Keller, Gresham, H.Miller, Olsen
1* Winslow, Schiancoe, Chandler, Watson

KI:
5* Kasay, Bryant, J.Brown
4* Nugent, Suisham, Folk, Novak, Gould
3* Rackers, Sebas, Gostkowski, Hennery
2* Bironas

DF:
5* Bengals, Steelers, Jets
4* Panthers, Falcons, Texans
3* Seahawks, Saints, Chargers
2* Raiders, Patriots

By: Eric Miller

Related posts:

  1. Miller’s Week 11 NFL & Fantasy Picks
  2. Miller’s Week 9 NFL & Fantasy Picks
  3. Miller’s Week 10 NFL & Fantasy Picks
  4. Miller’s Week 8 NFL & Fantasy Picks
  5. Eric Miller’s 2011 Week 1 NFL and Fantasy Picks

Tags: Eric Miller · Sports

4 responses so far ↓

  • 1 Ana Casal via Facebook // Nov 27, 2011 at 11:05 am

    Getting ready for the games!

  • 2 joey michelena // Nov 27, 2011 at 11:45 am

    hey eric, you`re right, the fins played well enough and do have the talent to be a 9-7
    team. However, with a horrible coach, and less than mediocre qb situation, it will never evolve.
    They must bottom-out and go 2-14 to select LUCK or get a REAL qb, not Moore who rarely sets in the pocket and truly has no clue (pocket presence).
    Lastly, did you enjoy SLOBRANO and his fetish for field goals this past thanksgiving ? Two int`s early and all this turkey of a coach could do is set up for fg`s. All told 5 fg attempts by big slobrano and his awful coaching style. Too bad dolphin fans don`t kick tony`s fat bum through the goal posts so he can perform a job like sub-maker at the loehmans publix.

  • 3 joey michelena // Nov 27, 2011 at 11:50 am

    2 predictions within 2 weeks:

    1- matt moore will get a 3 year 17 million dollar deal.

    2- tony soprano will sign a 2 year extension to remain coach.

    an early christmas present for loyal dolphin fans….

  • 4 joey michelena // Dec 2, 2011 at 8:21 pm

    locks—

    oregon-61 ucla-9
    wisconsin–34 mich. st.- 23
    LSU 17 georgia- 6
    dolphins 28 raiders 14

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